Addressing the changing role of prime-age men in employment

Natalie Henderson (Economist in Warwickshire County Council's Economy & Skills team) recently visited the Warwick Institute for Employment Research to discuss with policymakers and researchers the significantly-changing role of working men in developed economies.

Here, Natalie analyses the challenges posed by those changes and how this process is affecting Warwickshire - and outlines the urgent need for it to be addressed in the years ahead.

An interesting trend has emerged across the English-speaking developed countries of the world. Over years, labour-force participation among men of prime age (25-54 years) has fallen.

Nationally, the UK economy has seen a sharp decline in the manufacturing industry since the 1980s due to gradual labour market movements towards digitalisation. This has favoured higher-skilled workers and led to the continued “hollowing out" of middle and lower-skilled jobs.

The trend has significantly reduced employer demand for traditional male jobs and advanced the expansion of the service sector. So, applying this to Warwickshire, are men becoming less important for employment locally?

Figure 1: Growth in economic activity by gender (2004-15)

Source: NOMIS Annual Population Survey

The proportion of the population who are economically active (i.e. employed or unemployed) is a measure of labour participation. Despite prime-age men in Warwickshire having a higher economic activity rate (93.4%) than women (84.5%), fewer males are currently economically active compared to over ten years ago.

The surge in economically active females has resulted in a narrowed “prime-age” gender gap; halving the differential in participation rates from 17% in 2004 to 9% in 2015, helping to achieve higher productivity and economic growth locally.

Figure 2: Employment growth by occupation and gender (2005-22)

Source: EMSI

During the years 2005 to 2015, employment in occupations with high concentrations of female workers grew significantly faster than male-dominated occupations, with the 2008 recession having a greater cyclical impact on “traditional male” jobs such as skilled trades. This resulted in a widened gap in employment growth; with male occupations only achieving 5% growth (+1,000 jobs) compared to 13% in female occupations (+6,700 jobs).

By 2022, male-dominated jobs will increase by a further 970 jobs, driven by the rise in demand for mechanics and computer programmers. In contrast, “traditional-female” jobs will grow by 2,200, with this growth particularly driven by forecast increases in care workers and administration roles.

Other key points from the research include:

• There was a sharp decline in prime-age males working full-time (-3.4%) during the years 2004 to 2015. Although females historically fill more part-time roles, a growing number of prime-age men have chosen to work part-time (3%) compared to women (-11%) over the last ten years. 

• Faster growth is forecast in male-dominated industries compared to female-dominated industries; with the architectural and engineering industry to see the largest increase in male jobs by 2025.

All the evidence shows that Warwickshire’s labour market is continuing to change over time, reflecting the UK labour-market performance. Therefore it is vitally important that the take-up of men and women in the local workforce are equally addressed to maintain sustainable growth in the future. Warwickshire County Council is aware of this and will strive to factor it into future policy.

For further queries, please contact: nataliehenderson@warwickshire.gov.uk