Increasing automation and the threat to jobs - a special report

Advances in production techniques historically benefit the economy but smart technology capable of deep learning and free movement also has an adverse side-effect - the potential to replace jobs.

With more than 40% of jobs in the county at high risk of automation, research by Warwickshire Economics, part of Warwickshire County Council, reveals which occupations are most affected. Sam Van de Schootbrugge reports.

Technology in business continues to gallop along withmore and more roles able be fulfilled by robots or computerisation each year. This posesemployers a big question: "To automate or not to automate?"

We estimate that in Warwickshire today approximately 116,000 jobs are at very high risk of automation. Each of these jobs contains daily tasks which have at least a 70% chance of being completed by robotics/computerisation by the early 2030s. The figure represents 41.3% of Warwickshire’s total workforce, higher than the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) region (39.6%) and England (37.7%).

Most at risk are Level 1 occupations, typically requiring GCSE grades D-G, with almost three in four jobs in this area being impacted by technological advancements. Warwickshire employs a larger proportion of workers in these occupations (15.2%) relative to Coventry (14.5%), the WMCA (13.3%) and England (13.7%).

Conversely, jobs requiring a degree level qualification (level 4) are least likely to be automated.  Just 3% of professional occupations are very likely to be automated and three in five will certainly not be affected. However, the county employs relatively few in level 4 occupations. Also, those in Warwickshire who do have a degree are more likely to be in occupations that are expected to be significantly impacted by automation. For example, 1,400 of the 1,500 chartered and certified accountants in the county are expected to be replaced.

The majority of jobs in Warwickshire require level 2 and level 3 qualifications, and are categorised as middle-skilled in the report. Approximately one in two middle-skilled workers are at very high risk of automation, which amounts to 82,500 of the 116,000 jobs likely to be replaced. This reaffirms expectations that computers will be better positioned to take on the routine tasks of the middle-skilled workers. Automation of sales & retail assistants, large goods vehicle drivers and other administrative occupations will displace the highest number of workers, 23,500.

Across these three most-affected occupations, Warwickshire employs 6% more than the national average. This result extends across all the occupations the county specialises in; more than two in five jobs (42%) that are in occupations Warwickshire employs more than the national average in are at very high risk of automation - higher than Coventry (36.5%) and WMCA (36.5%).

Warwickshire also employs 24% more than the national average across all of the top five sectors most likely to be affected automation. An estimated 81,500 jobs may be lost in the wholesale & retail trade, manufacturing, transportation & logistics, tourism and construction industries. The abundance of process, plant and machine operatives in the county makes the transportation & logistics sector the biggest sectoral driver of Warwickshire’s high automation risk score.

Our research is among the first to examine the impact of automation on the types of jobs currently being advertised online in the county. These adverts help researchers build a picture of how the labour market is adjusting to current economic conditions and gives an insight into what the future job market might look like.

We find that a smaller proportion of job vacancies posted in 2017 are at very high risk of automation. Just 28.5% are expected to be replaced by computers, although again higher than Coventry (24.4%), the WMCA (27.3%) and England (23.8%).

And automation is not all bad news for the human workforce! Some  opportunitiesalso arise from it. In our report, using Nesta’s 2015 report on ‘Creativity vs Robots,’ we examine the occupations least likely to be replaced. We also look at how it may support immigration policy changes following the exit from the EU.

For all this information and more on the occupations we believe are most likely to be automated sooner rather than later in Warwickshire, please read the full report here